The future of bitcoin is undoubtedly difficult to predict. Opinions vary very much, someone believes that this crypto currency will cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, and someone on the contrary – believes that everything will end in failure. The latter is exactly the professor of economics at Harvard University Kenneth Rogoff.
Who is Kenneth Rogoff?
Ken Rogoff is Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Harvard University. He was the chief economist of the IMF from 2001 to 2003 and still holds the title of Grandmaster in Chess. Of course, the opinion of such a specialist deserves, at least, attention.
In a blog post in the Guardian, Ken Rogoff writes:
Is bitcoin the biggest bubble of our time or a tremendous investment opportunity using advanced technology? In my opinion, in the long term, the technology on which this crypto currency is based will flourish, but the price of bitcoins will collapse.
Although he recognizes that some governments, such as Japan, have taken the lead in regulating and accepting virtual currencies, he attributes this to Japan’s desire to become a world leader in financial technology.
History tells us that all the innovations of the private sector state, in the final analysis, regulates and incorporates. I have no idea what the price of bitcoin will be for the next two years, but reasons to expect that crypto-currencies will manage to avoid this fate – no.
As a result…
Ken Rogoff predicted that bitcoin would eventually collapse, but did not report any time frame thus protecting himself from failure. Analysts who work in the real world (as opposed to theoreticians) should make predictions tied to time. There is a big difference between doubling the price of an asset within two years and doubling in twenty years.